Round 1: The NorCal Clash
How will the Dubs fare against the high-flying Kings?
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
The Golden State Warriors closed out the regular season with a strong 8-2 run, avoiding the play-in tournament as the sixth seed and clinching a first-round matchup against their Northern California neighbors, the Sacramento Kings. The Kings ended the season as the third seed with a 48-34 record, which snapped a 16-season playoff drought. The Kings have been an exciting watch all season and set a record for the best offensive rating in NBA history. On the other hand, the Warriors have had a roller-coaster season coming off their 2022 Title. They have suffered from injuries, fatigue, untested rotations, and chronic fouling and turnovers. Yet, NBA analysts and Vegas odds have the Warriors as favorites in the series (-275 on FanDuel as of the publishing of this article). So, how do the Warriors and Kings match-up?
Let’s start with Sacramento.
As mentioned, the Kings have the best offensive rating in NBA history. That is very impressive, but what is the context? “Offensive rating” is simply points scored per 100 possessions. Offensive rating is a better way to measure an offense’s effectiveness than points per game because it standardizes for teams that play at different paces. Per Basketball Reference, the Kings scored 119.4 points per 100 possessions this season, which is 4.6 points higher than this year’s league average of 114.8 (also an NBA record). This is called “relative offensive rating”. The 2016 Warriors, who went 73-9 in the regular season, led the league in offensive rating at 114.5, but their relative offensive rating was +8.1 points – the third highest of all time. The Kings’ relative offensive rating of +4.6 is not even top 40 all time. The bottom line is the Kings have a great offense, but they are not the most dominant offense of all time.
How do the Kings score so many points?
The Kings primarily run the Princeton offense, made famous by Pete Carril at Princeton University. Pete Carril was also an assistant coach for the Kings for 12 non-consecutive years between 1996 and 2011. The Princeton offense emphasizes cutting, screening (both on- and off-ball), passing, and reacting to what the defense gives you. Running this offense only works with skilled offensive players who read-and-react well.1
The Princeton offense has been lethal for the Kings this season primarily because Domantas Sabonis is the chief decision-maker at the top of the key. Sabonis is an extremely skilled playmaker, which makes him the ideal Center to have running this particular offense. Meanwhile, Kings’ point guard De’Aaron Fox is an explosive player who gets to the rim at will. Fox should be considered the “head of the snake”, despite Sabonis’ importance to the flow of the offense.
The Kings usually run the Princeton offense in a “5-out” formation, which means that no players are in the post area unless they are cutting through, giving the team maximum spacing. Here is how the offense usually looks to start each set, with the 1-4 players moving interchangeably. Shoutout to The Hoops Geek2 for the online whiteboard.
Sabonis, at the Center position, will dribble toward the wing player (in either direction), triggering a cut backdoor toward the basket. Of course, if it is open, Sabonis will make the pass for an easy layup, but this action is usually stymied by the defender. Meanwhile, the weak-side players will slide up the three-point line to make room for the cutter to end up in the corner.
This action is followed by a dribble handoff (DHO) with the player coming out of the corner.
From here, the ball-handler has options.
He can penetrate to the middle,
initiate a pick-and-roll,
or simply shoot.
Where the Warriors need to be extra careful is overhelping on the corner shooter. This has been a problem for the Warriors all season. The Kings’ highly efficient shooting will make the Warriors pay if they can’t avoid the temptation.
There are many variations in this offense, but that is the basic concept. One thing the Warriors can try is denying the DHO. This could muck up the wing action and force the Kings to score in more advanced options.
How will the Kings guard Stephen Curry?
On the other side of the court, the Kings have had more problems. Their defensive rating was 116.8. That is 25th out of 30th in the league this year. Their main task will be figuring out how to guard the two-time MVP, Stephen Curry.
During the regular season, the Kings players who guarded Curry the most were De’Aaron Fox and Davion Mitchell. In the three games that they were active, Fox defended Curry for about 13:58 and Mitchell defended Curry for about 13:26. Mitchell is the Kings’ best shot at slowing down Curry, but he only played 18 minutes per game this season and is not an offensive player. Mitchell almost certainly won’t be starting or closing games for the Kings. As for Fox, I find it hard to believe that head coach Mike Brown will want Fox exerting energy guarding Curry. Fox is their most deadly offensive player, and they need him fresh on the other end of the floor to win this series. To solve this conundrum, the Kings might end up trying one of their wings on Curry to start. Their options are Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter, and Harrison Barnes. There has been speculation in the media that Keegan Murray is the man. Sabonis even hinted at this in a media session earlier this week.3
We will see how long that strategy lasts. The Kings have a real problem here. Sacramento’s wings are not quick enough to stay with the shifty Steph Curry. Meanwhile, their best option, Mitchell, is not a key part of their high-flying offense or closing lineups. I expect the Kings to eventually pivot back to a combination of Fox and Mitchell, despite it being an inadequate solution.
Now, for the Warriors.
Who will be in the starting lineup?
No question, the Warriors’ best starting lineup at full strength is:
Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green, and Looney
But, as we mentioned on our podcast earlier in the week (and is now being reported by Shams Charania4), Wiggins will most likely come off the bench just like Steph Curry did to start last year’s playoff run. Expect Wiggins to play about 20 minutes per game as he gets back into shape.
If Wiggins comes off the bench, the best lineup to start the game is:
Curry, DiVincenzo, Thompson, Green, and Looney
This lineup has played 170 minutes together this season and has been the main starting lineup since Wiggins left the team on February 14th. It is also a favorable lineup to deploy against the Kings’ starters. DiVincenzo will start defending Fox, freeing Curry and Thompson of that burden. Meanwhile, Looney will defend Sabonis, allowing Green to roam off-ball like a free safety.
Alternatively, Kerr could start small with Kuminga instead of Looney, but I think that is something Kerr will save for later in the series if adjustments are needed.
How will the Warriors attack the Kings defense?
There are a ton of holes in the Kings defense. This matchup reminds me of two teams that the Warriors have faced in the playoffs before. The first is the Portland Trailblazers with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The Warriors were able to expose Lillard’s and McCollum’s weakness on the defensive end in both isolation and running them through screens. Steph Curry averaged over 36 points per game in the Western Conference Finals in a four game sweep. The second is last year’s first round matchup against the Denver Nuggets. The Warriors pick-and-roll offense torched Nikola Jokic down the stretch. The Nuggets obviously couldn’t bench their two-time MVP, so they had to hope that Jokic’s offense would make up for the points he allowed on the other end. Sabonis is a better defender than Jokic, but the Warriors will try this same tactic in crunch time. The Warriors are not kind to big men with slow feet.
How will the Warriors guard De’Aaron Fox?
The Dubs’ best on-ball defenders are DiVincenzo, Payton II, Wiggins, and Kuminga. A mix of these four players will get their shot at slowing Fox down. If both Malik Monk and Fox are in the game, I expect DiVincenzo to slide down and cover Monk. Leaving GPII, Wiggins, or Kuminga (whoever is on the floor at that time) to handle Fox.
I don’t think the Warriors will want to put Thompson on Fox in this series. Thompson is slower than he used to be after his two injuries and Fox is one of the quickest players in the entire league. The Warriors need Thompson to be exerting most of his energy on the offensive end. I also don’t think Curry will get much time defending Fox for similar reasons.
Wrap Up
X-Factors
Here are some guys that could prove important in this series.
For the Kings:
Malik Monk – Monk is a microwave scorer off the bench who can get hot at any moment. He could single handedly win the Kings a game if the Warriors are not careful.
Kevin Huerter – Huerter is a 40% three-point shooter on nearly 7 attempts per game. He averaged 15 points per game this year and is a key weapon in Mike Brown’s Princeton offense.
For the Warriors:
Payton II – GPII will be needed off the bench to slow down Fox and Monk. Since his return from injury, the Warriors defense has looked closer to the defense of last year’s championship team.
Jordan Poole – Similar to the problem with Curry, the Kings don’t have great defensive options for Poole. In the first-round last year against the Nuggets, Poole averaged 21 points per game on an absurd 71% true shooting percentage, which is shooting percentage adjusted for three-pointers and free throws. This series is an opportunity for a similar performance from Poole.
Series Prediction
For a number of reasons, I am tempted to pick a Warriors sweep but will instead go with Dubs in 5 to account for one game of overwhelming Kings offense, most likely to occur in Sacramento. First, as discussed, the Kings do not have sufficient options for defending Steph Curry (or Jordan Poole) and, despite the issues we saw in the regular season, the Warriors do have options for containing the Kings’ offensive weapons. Second, the Warriors have the head coaching advantage with Steve Kerr. All due respect to Mike Brown, who is a fine coach and served the Warriors well as an assistant, but Kerr is an all-time great tactician who has only lost two playoff series in his nine seasons of coaching. Third, the Kings’ players have limited playoff experience, especially when compared to the Warriors. The Kings could prove to be more composed than a typical up-and-coming team, but I am not betting on it against the defending champs. Fourth, despite the raucous Sacramento crowd, the Kings were just 23-18 at home this year. It is true, the Warriors were horrible on the road this regular season, yet, the Warriors have won a road game in 27 consecutive playoff series – an NBA record. I expect them to extend that record to at least 28 series.
There might come a time this postseason when the Dubs fail in their title defense, but this is not that time.
https://www.coachesclipboard.net/PrincetonOffense.html
https://www.thehoopsgeek.com/playcreator/
https://twitter.com/MattGeorgeSAC/status/1646274722303459329
https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1646623689956528128