Pieces of the Puzzle
A dive into how Steve Kerr has managed lineups and combinations through the first 12 games
After a dramatic offseason trade, promising free agent acquisitions, and the typical offseason spin leaking out of the front-office, Warriors’ fans had many questions coming into the year. Will Chris Paul come off the bench or start? Who will be in the closing lineup most often? How will Steph Curry, Chris Paul, and Klay Thompson work together on offense? Will Kuminga or Moody finally make a leap to become key contributors? How will the Warriors’ defense improve with Chris Paul and Steph Curry in the backcourt? Will the Warriors’ starting five from last year continue to be one of the best units in the league? How will Chris Paul fit on offense with Draymond Green?
After 12 games, we have a decent sample size of minutes played. The Warriors’ record is 6-6 after losing five of the last six games, so we have seen both the good and the bad. Lineup data will of course change throughout the season, so what is presented below is not set in stone. It is still worthwhile to take a look at how Steve Kerr has managed the new roster and examine how the players have performed so far this year. Below are some interesting trends that stood out to me for one reason or another. As a reminder, Offensive Rating is the number of points scored per 100 possessions, Defensive Rating is the number of points ceded per 100 possessions, and Net Rating is simply the difference between the two. The average Offensive Rating so far this year is 113.1. There are of course many other stats that we could look at, but for this article we’ll keep things simple. All stats are from NBA.com.
Paul - Green
This was a combination that I was worried about coming into the season. Draymond Green has been a catalyst for the dynastic Warriors as a ball-handling point-forward. His passing, screening, communication, organizing presence, and telepathic chemistry with Steph Curry has helped carry the Dubs for a decade. The problem is, a lot of what Draymond brings to the offense overlaps with what makes Chris Paul great. Both players thrive when they have the ball in their hands, orchestrating the offense. Paul and Green are experts at controlling the pace of the game and exposing the weaknesses of the defense. But, if they play minutes together, who cedes power to who, and does that render the other useless on offense? How will they adjust to each other’s respective games? Well so far, they have not been very effective on the floor together, posting a Net Rating of -4.4. The Defensive Rating is solid, as you might expect, at 107.4. The problem is that the Offensive Rating is a pitiful 103.1. Clearly the two still need to figure out how to share the floor together. To be fair, they have only shared the floor for 44 minutes in 9 games, less than 5 minutes per game. Kerr has clearly tried his best to stay away from this combination because of the awkward fit. It will be interesting to see if Kerr continues to stagger their minutes or if he leans into using them together.
Curry - Thompson - Wiggins - Green - Looney
Despite Draymond Green missing the first two games to injury, sitting out the game against Denver for personal reasons and getting ejected twice, this five-man lineup is still the unit with the most minutes played together for the Warriors through 12 games. This has also been the starting unit since Draymond returned from injury. Last year, this was the lineup with the most minutes played on the team and they ended the regular season with the highest Net Rating in the entire NBA for a five-man lineup with +21.9 (minimum 200 minutes played). So how are they faring this year? Not great! This unit has a net rating of -14.4 to start the year. The biggest problem is that their Defensive Rating has skyrocketed from 106.1 last season to 126.6 this season. This is due to a few things. First, Draymond missed most of training camp to injury, so he has been playing himself into the defensive anchor we know and love, which is taking some time. Second, Klay has looked slow and just can’t defend guards or even quick wings very well anymore. Third, Wiggins is nowhere to be found. He not only has been unable hit a shot (10.4 ppg, 39.5% FG, 15.2% 3PT FG), but he also hasn’t been his usual self on defense. Wiggins is always tasked with guarding the other team’s best guard or wing player because of his length and ability to stay in front of his man. So far this year, Wiggins hasn’t defended to the level we are accustomed to. I expect this negative Net Rating to improve as the ice thaws from Klay and Wiggins on offense and the defense of Wiggins and Draymond rounds into form. On the other hand, if this lineup can’t turn things around, the Warriors are simply not contenders for the title.
Paul - Curry - Thompson
This combination is interesting in multiple ways. The most obvious is that both Steph and CP3 are point guards. But, Steph can thrive with or without the ball in his hands, so it was clear before the season that this combination would feature a lot of CP3 running the show, trying to get good looks for Steph and Klay who would swerve around screens off-ball. So far that theory has been correct, although CP3 has been more comfortable off-ball than I imagined. The overall offensive fit has been pretty solid so far, as we can see from this combination’s 118.4 Offensive Rating. The second interesting piece with this lineup is the defensive fit between the three. None of these players are defensive stoppers on the wing at this stage in their careers. Klay is the closest to a stopper, but, since his injuries, he has lost the ability to move side-to-side with shifty offensive players. Steph and CP3 can hold their own against smaller players but in general they are not big or strong enough to present a challenge against elite NBA players. So the solution to the problem is to add a great wing defender like GPII or Wiggins to this combination. Kerr has recognized that, allowing this combination to produce a Defensive Rating of 112.1—not shut-down but not leaking points either. Overall, the Net Rating of +6.3 proves the group has worked fairly well together so far.
Green - Looney
Everyone’s favorite bigman tandem. The anchors. The heartbeat of the Warriors. Unfortunately, through 12 games, they have not been great on the floor together. This pairing has a -2.4 Net Rating. More surprisingly, they are giving up 117.3 points per 100 possessions. These two players are not going to shoot the lights out, to put it mildly, so if they can’t produce a lockdown defense when they are on the court together, it will become hard to justify having two non-shooters on the floor at the same time. Yet, Kerr loves both Draymond and Looney and will give them a much longer leash together than others because, as the starting big-men, they helped the Warriors win a championship in 2022 and are well-established veterans. The poor Defensive Rating is also probably not the fault of Green and Looney. They typically play together with the rest of the starting five, who we saw have been awful on defense so far this season (126.6). That suggests that actually the pairing has been decent outside of the poor-performing starting unit. Whatever the true reason for their negative Net Rating, this is certainly a combination to monitor throughout the season given their importance to the Warriors’ success in the past.
Payton II - Splash Brother
Once again, GPII is proving to be the perfect running mate with Curry and Thompson. GPII paired with Curry has yielded a Net Rating of +15.3. GPII paired with Thompson has yielded a Net Rating of +14.6. Both of these combinations are net-positive due to elite Defensive Ratings of 93.5 and 93.8, respectively. When GPII is on the floor with both of them at the same time (three-man combination), they have a Net Rating of +10.3 thanks, again, to a stellar 94.6 Defensive Rating. We have said this on the podcast many times this year already, but there is no reason for GPII to be playing fewer than 20-25 minutes per game. And, when he is on the floor, he should be next to a Splash Brother.
Paul - Thompson - Kuminga
You might be wondering why this combination is important enough to be included in a lineup analysis article. The reason is, this is the three-man combination with the highest Net Rating on the team through 12 games (minimum 40 minutes played). This group has only played 56 minutes together in 10 different games, but the results so far have been impressive. This group has a Net Rating of +30.3, which is incredibly high. Their Offensive Rating is 129.4 and their Defensive Rating is 99.1—both elite ratings. This level of success could easily be an outlier this early in the season, but it will be interesting to see if the combination can at least continue to post net-positive ratings going forward. This is definitely one to monitor through the first half of the season.
Paul - Saric
Saric is the player most used alongside Chris Paul through 12 games, with 199 minutes. Dubs fans won’t be surprised to see this. The combination of Paul and Saric have a Net Rating of +3.9 so far this year. Saric and CP3 have been coming off the bench together, running a nice pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop. There is a clear chemistry between the two that has developed since their time in Phoenix together. Expect this pairing to continue to thrive the rest of the season, anchoring the second unit.
Thompson - Wiggins
The Warriors’ two starting wings have been the second worst two-man combination on the entire team so far this season, minimum 40 minutes played. Through 220 minutes, their Net Rating is -14.2 due to an atrocious 124.4 Defensive Rating. If you have watched Warriors games this year, it has been clear from the eye-test that these two guys are seriously struggling, and the stats have backed that assessment up. This is not a small sample at this point. Wiggins and Thompson are two of the four most important players on the team and they both play the most important position in the NBA: wing. Without production on the wing—on both sides of the ball—the Dubs will not win enough games to give themselves home-court advantage to start the playoffs. There are too many good teams in the West to get away with this. The slumping Warriors need this to turn around as soon as possible or they may fall behind to the point where they are struggling to avoid the Play-In Tournament, as they had to do last year.
Jackson-Davis - Podziemski
To wrap this article up on a positive note, let’s look at the most positive two-man combination (minimum 40 minutes played) on the team so far, which is of course the deadly combination of… rookies TJD and Podz? Okay, I think we can all admit this is shocking. Even more awesome is that Podziemski and TJD are part of the best three two-man combinations on the team. The combinations, in order, are: TJD-Podz, TJD-Kuminga, and Podz-CP3. The fact that none of these combinations have Steph, Draymond, or Klay in them tells me that a) this will change, and b) it is probably being skewed by the game against Minnesota where the Big 3 were either injured or ejected. Even so, this speaks to the fact that the two rookies have been earning Kerr’s trust with productive minutes. Expect to continue to see the rookies get playing time this year, as long as they can continue to defend hard and make smart plays on offense.